Stats On Winning Favourites
- Stats On Winning Favorites Florida Lottery
- Stats On Winning Favorites 2019
- What Percentage Of Odds On Favourites Win
Manchester United are very much in charge of their Europa League last-32 against Real Sociedad after pulling off a 4-0 ‘statement victory’ in Turin.
Talisman Bruno Fernandes put them in front in the first half as he took advantage of a mix-up between the Real Sociedad defenders and goalkeeper Alex Remiro before passing the ball home.
Adding these up and dividing by 5 the average probability of a horse winning is 3101 10725 making the odds 7620: 3101 Also note the odds do not directly represent the real chances of horse winning but a perceived chance and the odds may go up or down depending on how much money has been bet. Newcastle have won four league titles and six FA Cups since their foundation in 1892, but they've not managed to hoist any major silverware since the 1955 FA Cup. The Magpies famously came close to winning the Premier League, under Kevin Keegan, in both 1995/96 and 1996/97, only to miss out to Man Utd on both occasions. Get the latest NFL football news, scores, stats, standings, fantasy games, and more from ESPN.
Fernandes doubled the Red Devils’ advantage on 58 minutes as he stroked the ball home into the corner. The goal initially wasn’t given as he was flagged offside, however, replays showed he was in fact onside.
The second goal shed further light on just how brilliant the Portugal international has been at Man United. He’s now been directly involved in 52 goals (33 goals and 19 assists) in 58 appearances for the club.
But on talkSPORT 2 commentary, Matt Holland picked out Marcus Rashford as ‘the most important player’ for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men.
He said: “He may not have scored but I think he’s been the most important player in the transition from defence to attacking areas. He’s the one that’s got up the pitch with real pace and determination to take them on and create things.”
Rashford did score moments later as he slid home after latching onto Fred’s pass in a rapid counter-attack, with former United player Owen Hargreaves later labelling the Red Devils as ‘the best counter-attacking team in Europe’.
Daniel James made it four with a cool finish after a lung-busting run down the right wing on a night which saw 18-year-old Amad Diallo make his senior debut for the Red Devils.
The match made a frantic start with former United man Adnan Januzaj curling wide, while Alexander Isak forced Dean Henderson into making a smart save.
Rashford had two great opportunities to score but Fernandes made no mistake following a collision between Robin Le Normand, Igor Zubledia and goalkeeper Remiro.
It was all Man United from that point and they ran away with victory against the LaLiga outfit, who also have Manchester City legend David Silva and former Arsenal defender Nacho Monreal on their ranks.
As Holland put it at the end of the match, the result is a ‘statement victory’ by Man United, who will have made the rest of the teams in the competition sit up and take notice.
When the betting odds indicate that a UFC fight is a mismatch, does that usually mean that it is? This article is written to prove that it does.
The goal of this article is to help influence profitable betting decisions. It succeeds by including data on how big favorites perform on fight totals.
What is a big favorite? A big favorite is when a fighter has odds of -300, or wider, to win. Therefore, in terms of percentages, a big favorite means that a fighter’s implied odds of winning are 75% or more.
What are fight totals? A fight total is a bet on whether a fight will end before or after a certain length of time (1.5 rounds, 2.5 rounds, 3.5 round, or 4.5 rounds).
Here are some questions that this post will answer:
1. How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?
2. How often does an under cash when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?
3. How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?
4. Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?
5. How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?
[RECOMMENDED ARTICLE: MMA Betting Checklist: 25 Questions to Accurately Predict Winners]
All of this analysis is solely concerned with data on the UFC promotion.
All UFC betting lines for over/unders (also known as fight totals) can be found at 5Dimes. However, these lines don’t come out until a few days before the start of an upcoming UFC event.
How often does an under cash when the matchup has a big favorite?
The quick answer is 49.1% (105/214). That statistic takes into account data from UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, which is the past 71 UFC events. So, about half of the time, a matchup with a big favorite will result in a finish before the lined fight total. This result includes the sum of all the over and under variations (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 rounds).
What makes this statistic hold any value? What is value in this context? Value is when the probability of occurrence is greater than the implied odds specified from betting odds. The reason it holds value is because statistics are good for benchmarks. They help compute the trend of future probability by comparing the record of the past.
Ultimately, the value in knowing that big favorites cash the under 49.1% of the time is that you can use this information for future decisions. For example, the American odds for 49.1% is +104. Knowing that, I’ll be a lot more hesitant to bet an under that’s a -200.
How often does an under cash for UFC betting, when the matchup doesn’t have a big favorite?
To gain a better perspective of how big 49.1% is, let’s see what the other side of the coin reveals.
During the same span of UFC events (71), the under cashes 37.8% of the time, when fights don’t have big favorites. The under is 11.3% more likely to occur (win/cash) when a big favorite is involved. That’s enough to consider a big favorite more of a finishing threat.
Intuitively, this makes sense. The wider the perceived margin in skill by oddsmakers, the more likely that margin results in a stoppage win. In other words, more finishes will result in more under bets cashing.
Why is this statistic involving a 11.3% differential meaningful? If it’s possible to increase the chances for success in any endeavor by over 11%, why not take it? In UFC betting, you need every percent you can get. Every advantage equals more profit. Let me rephrase that, every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.
“… every statistical advantage equals more systematic profit.”
Although the sample sizes are different, the point of this comparison is to see how big favorites and non-big favorites performed on fight totals during the same amount of UFC cards, not fights. The reason for that is there are only an average of 3.0 big favorites per card (214/71) compared to 9.0 non-big favorites per card (638/71).
If the sample sizes were to be the same, one would have to compare years of big favorites data to months of non-big favorite data. Because the sport has evolved so much over the past few years, the data would be less meaningful to compare a big favorite from 3 years ago to a non-big favorite from 3 months ago.
To derive even more value from the previous statistic, you can subtract these numbers by 100% to get how often the over cashes. So, the result on the over for non-big favorites is 62.2% (100.0-37.8).
We now have a benchmark for the over and under for matchups with or without a big favorite, but how can we appraise different fight totals for value?
How much more likely is an under going to happen when the fight totals are set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds, when a matchup involves a big favorite?
The picture below describes how likely the over/under 1.5 rounds cashes compared to the 2.5 round prop. As you can see, it would be more financially responsible to bet the under 2.5 and the over 1.5, when a big favorite is facing a big underdog.
How do all the divisions compare in fight total statistics, when it involves UFC matchups with a big favorite?
As you can see, most data points don’t have a sample size worth attaching any meaning to. Since the past 71 UFC events has only had 214 big favorites, and there are 12 different divisions, there are not enough data points to go around.
Stats On Winning Favorites Florida Lottery
Although these sample sizes are small, a few divisions have some telling statistics. In order to highlight them, I boxed the most noteworthy ones in red.
The over 1.5 rounds prop on UFC featherweight big favorites have won 7 out of the past 9 times. Knowing this, I would avoid betting the under 1.5 rounds prop when a matchup includes a featherweight big favorite.
Stats On Winning Favorites 2019
Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites?
Yes! From the same time frame used above (UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147), there have been 33 UFC matchups with a female big favorite. Out of those 33 fights, the under cashed 17 times. That is a rate of 51.5%.
Now, how often does a bet on the under win when the female matchup doesn’t include a woman that’s a big favorite?
From UFC Fight Night 111 to UFC Fight Night 147, there have been 96 such matchups. From those 96 contests, only 23 of them payed out on the under. That is a minuscule rate of 24.0%.
I expect the gap between 51.5% and 24.0% to close as I log more female big favorite matchups, but I see the statistical advantage to continue to exist.
What makes these statistics impressive and potentially lucrative is that oddsmakers and UFC bettors expect the majority of female matchups to go to decision. Because of this expectation, the betting odds that a female UFC fight will make it under the designated fight total are usually around +200.
There is a lot of value on a +200, if the probability of occurrence has historically averaged to be 51.5%. So, make sure to take advantage of those opportunities!
Summary
What Percentage Of Odds On Favourites Win
Here is a quick rundown of what I described in this UFC betting article: